Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States deteriorated sharply in the first nine months of 2025, as exports to the American market declined by ₦940.98bn while imports more than doubled, reversing a trade balance that had favoured Nigeria a year earlier.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Nigeria exported goods worth ₦3.65tn to the US between January and September 2025, down from ₦4.59tn recorded in the same period of 2024. This represents a 20.5 per cent drop in export value. In contrast, imports from the US surged to ₦6.80tn from ₦3.01tn, reflecting a 125.5 per cent increase.
As a result, Nigeria posted a trade deficit of approximately ₦3.15tn with the United States in the first nine months of 2025, compared with a trade surplus of ₦1.57tn in the corresponding period of 2024.
The downturn coincided with the implementation of Washington’s “reciprocal” tariff policy, under which former US President Donald Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent. The order, issued in late July, took effect on August 7, 2025. While crude oil exports were largely exempted, the higher tariffs applied to a broad range of non-oil Nigerian products, creating uncertainty for US importers and weakening demand.
Non-oil exports bore the brunt of the impact. In 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US rose steadily each quarter, generating consistent trade surpluses. However, this trend reversed in 2025 as exports fell sharply, particularly in the third quarter, while imports climbed rapidly.
Quarter-on-quarter figures show that exports declined by 11.9 per cent between the first and second quarters of 2025, before plunging by 45.3 per cent in the third quarter. Imports, meanwhile, rose by 51.8 per cent between Q1 and Q2 and jumped a further 49.1 per cent between Q2 and Q3, significantly widening the trade gap.
Year-on-year analysis reveals that although exports grew by 17.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, they fell by 14.3 per cent in the second quarter and collapsed by 56 per cent in the third quarter. Imports increased sharply across all three quarters, rising by 40.9 per cent in Q1, 123.5 per cent in Q2, and 209.4 per cent in Q3.
The sharp decline in export earnings saw the United States drop out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by mid-2025, even as it remained one of the country’s largest sources of imports.
Product-level data further highlights the imbalance. While crude oil dominated Nigeria’s exports to the US earlier in the year, export volumes narrowed significantly by the second and third quarters, falling to relatively low-value items. Meanwhile, imports — led by crude petroleum oils, used vehicles, wheat, and industrial products — continued to surge.
Despite the worsening figures, the Federal Government has expressed confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience. President Bola Tinubu said growing non-oil revenues would help cushion the impact of external trade shocks, while the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, emphasized ongoing reforms, export diversification, and expanded trade partnerships beyond the US.
Stakeholders and economists have also described the tariff regime as an opportunity for Nigeria to deepen non-oil exports, strengthen South–South trade ties, and reduce dependence on the American market.
